The vision thing

Well, Monday is the moment of truth for BT's long-awaited entry into TV, and I guess there must be more than a few sets of white knuckles at BT Centre. The launch comes at a time when TV viewing in the UK is seeing some interesting shifts - around 40% of respondents to a BBC survey say that internet video is displacing TV viewing to some extent, 20% say it is significant, and it also looks like the HD bug is catching. I'm curious to see what BT delivers, and I wish the company well, but there are still some pretty difficult fundamental questions as to what the medium even is anymore (ignore the long downloads and initial annoying advertisement - these are worth waiting for), which I doubt will be answered on Monday.

Whose tube?

The downside of user-generated content, from South Korea, as some shibpallom gets literal.

Things are in the saddle, and ride man

It's 2015 in London, and you're still trying to recover from the fantastically successful Olympics. Your home has a 100Mbps symmetrical broadband connection which satisfies most, if not all, of your media and information needs. Your legacy PSTN connection is a distant memory, and in idle moments you reminisce about those bad old days when a movie used to take a few hours to download. Most of the applications you run are web-based, and a lot of your media is stored somewhere other than on a device in your home. Well, if this LogicaCMG survey is right, you'd better have your own generator, or a house covered in solar panels, if you want "five nines" access. I wonder how much of an issue the telecom industry sees in securing/guaranteeing a reliable energy supply for customers? Any comments, as usual, are most welcome.

Abandoned blogs

I thought this would be an appropriate topic with which to start the revival of Chaotica. Recent work commitments have made it impossible to maintain momentum here, but I will now return to regular posting as things have finally calmed down a bit.

The hard-working people over at japan.internet.com have updated their regular series of surveys into blogging, focusing this time on reasons why people give it up. Interestingly of the 1,041 people interviewed, 42% claim to have published their own blog, but of this number 31% claim to have abandoned it. Of those who abandon their blogs, 67% say it is because "maintaining it is a hassle," 22% say they "got tired of it," and 17% say that the relevance of the topic their were posting on had diminished. Most interesting to me is that another 17% of respondents say that their attention has moved to community sites such as Mixi.

MySecondHalfLifeTV

I have been faring poorly in my pledge to increase posting frequency on this blog, and must do better. A mega-uber value reader alerts me to coverage of a Northwestern University project called News at Seven in NewScientist. Here's where it all comes together - entirely personalized text, audio and video content culled from RSS feeds and other sources, edited, transformed to natural speech and delivered by a virtual character. It's intriguing to think about what else could eventually be fed into such an update, for instance virtual life management things like, "In other news, you have two Skype voicemails, three friend requests from MySpace, a couple of unsavoury-looking people hanging around your virtual boutique in Second Life, and your guild is getting an ass-whoopin' in World of Warcraft."

Reanimation

Esteemed mega-uber value readers, I have ignored you for too long, buried under work commitments. I am committed to doing better in the coming days.

Mobile micropayments

Those hard-working people at japan.internet.com and JR Tokai Express Research have published the findings of a survey into use of contactless IC mobile payment systems, two years on from their launch in Japan. The 32% of the total sample group which had RFID funtionality in their handsets were asked a variety of questions about usage patterns. Over 40% of this subgroup had some experience of mobile payments via RFID in the handset, and nearly a quarter (23%) of this claimed to make use of the feature frequently. As for payment scenarios, 82% claimed to have used it to make payments in convenience stores, the most popular response, followed by "shopping" at 40%, and paying for train tickets (using the Mobile Suica service) claimed 20%. This latter result is pretty high, in my opinion, considering that this handset-based service was only launched at the end of January. Only 10% of respondents described themselves as being "very familiar" with the new credit card functionality being added to handsets via RFID, though 80% claimed to have some familiarity with the concept. So, for now at least, it looks like micropayments and commuting behaviors dominate the space.

Omega man

Well, here's one of my scoops referred to last week, which I claimed would advance the disruption of a certain industry - and that industry is my own. Longstanding readers of this humble blogatelle may recall that one of my recurring themes is that, if IP can enable disruption of voice, "entertainment" and distribution of all forms of media, then surely the hallowed halls of investment research may be candidates for makeovers as condominiums or shopping arcades.

My thesis has always remained that the mindshare of bloggers and other independent opinion shapers inevitably would collectively overwhelm the walled gardens which are brokers' research products. The expertise "out there" is just too great, and the analysis too frank, to be ignored - and it grows daily into something I like to call "open source analysis". I have argued that investment banking research, to remain relevant, would have to adopt the same tools and approach, to create a "point of presence" in this new ecosystem, indeed to create a Media 2.0 profile for its analysts. It's no longer enough to go on CNBC looking buff and hyperconfident.

So, for any depressed analysts on Wall Street, or within the Square Mile, go pour yourself another half-caff skinny latte and consider what it means that David Jackson and his team at Seeking Alpha have struck a deal with Yahoo! to get the insights of the open source analysts into a prominent placing on Yahoo! Finance. David (an early reader of EuroTelcoblog who has offered a lot of moral support and was kind enough to include me as an early occasional contributor to Seeking Alpha) has worked hard to make the site genuinely useful, funding free conference call transcripts, taking on experienced editors who understand what makes a piece relevant.

For the fund manager or independent investor who hasn't had the time, stamina, or knowledge to amass and keep up with a long list of RSS feeds on a wide range of issues, having a trusted aggregator of independent voices within an already trusted and familiar source of financial news and data poses more than a trivial challenge to the brokers for gaining and holding one's attention.

... and part 29

The number of Americans who claim to have downloaded a TV program from the internet has doubled in the past year, says IPSOS.

The relentless rise of online video, part 28

Our Television 1.0 set broke a couple of days ago, after many years of faithful service. Rather than rush into replacing it, we're taking our time and considering our options, and catching a little TV progamming on the web. Personally, I am a fan of the strange and wonderful gems to be found on the Internet Archive, and my wife and kids have been catching up on unwatched DVDs, all on our laptops. Unsurprisingly, we seem to have become more discerning in our viewing, and the kids seem to enjoy the novelty factor of it. Whether this happens out of neccessity (as in our case) or choice, it seems to be happening a lot more generally, at least according to this new survey from AOL. Among other things, it finds that one third of those who have some experience with online video claim to watch more of it today than they did a year ago. What I find really interesting is the breakdown of content watched, which shows "amateur videos" (presumably this includes some p0rn) almost on a par with sports highlights and music videos. Also of note is that video podcasts have been watched by 17% of the respondents, putting user generated content on a level pegging with live sports. Also note that half of respondents said they prefer watching on the computer than on the TV.

Americans and the internet over time

Those hardworking people at the Pew Internet Project have very kindly produced a spreadsheet containing some of the data they've collected about internet usage habits in the US over time. Download it here.

Blogospheric re-entry

Well, mega-uber value readers, I'm back for real now, and hunkered down for a busy autumn, during which I promise to endeavor to post more frequently and interestingly to both this bloglet and the somewhat neglected Chaotica. As I warned before I went away, I knew something major would happen while I was unwired, and indeed there was no shortage of interesting news, most of it predictably coming from outside EuroTelcoLand:

Google/eBay: I don't know how surprising this deal really was, given the click-to-call obsession of the past year and the efforts Google has been making towards achieving universal interoperability with other IM clients. I have for some time been of the suspicion that Skype would be forced at some point to pursue such an arrangement, though the official line has been that interoperability would be driven by user demand, which was reportedly not strong. Then again, what we have here is an agreement to "explore interoperability between Skype and Google Talk via open standards to enable text chat and online presence." Not the whole hog, but a step in an interesting direction. Andy makes an interesting observation about Skype becoming an alternative, communications-centric browser, which I thinks jibes well with some comments made by Niklas Zennstrom at VON Stockholm, to the effect that Skype has value as a conduit/enabler for other applications. This is going to run and run.

I reckon more than one telco music download product team hastily updated their CVs upon the revelation of Universal Music's deal with SpiralFrog. I am skeptical that the formula will work (DRM was made to be cracked, and there is no shortage of WMA conversion software available), but then again if we see another major label jumping on board maybe it will grow teeth. I could go on and on about the fascinating developments around YouTube, Goople, etc., but the point is that telco newsflow continues to be pretty turgid by comparison:

• While the global VoIM players engage in an ever-changing alliance exercise resembling a game of Twister, on the ropes, in the corner swinging wildly, BT counters with a me-too VoIM client notably not co-branded with Yahoo! (the fine print alone is enough to make the Skype or Gizmo user titter with contempt).
• If you can imagine what the word "Duh" sounds like heard through a stifled yawn, then you can imagine my reaction to the Vodafone Belgian retreat. This is step one on my long-established roadmap to a slimmer, trimmer Vodafone, and I also expect a Swiss-shaped hole in the global domination map by Christmas. And, once again, despite all the "asset-lite" rhetoric, I fully expect some broadband acquisitions will follow.
• VDSL T-Day came and went in Germany, with the European Commission using some strong language and also urging a fast-track to naked DSL. Read T-Regs' excellent overview.
• Dick Notebaert of Qwest wants to protect the hapless consumer from the evils of net neutrality. If anyone can translate his comments into a language I can understand please send your version along.

So, compare and contrast: expansion, risk-taking, innovation versus regulation, retreat and paranoia. God am I glad to be back in EuroTelcoLand!!!!

Breaking into the pod

Japanese advertising colossus Dentsu and a partner cyber communications have come up with a technology for audio ad insertion in podcasts without requiring re-edits of the original content. As much as I am fascinated by/contemptuous of advertising, this looks like a really cool idea, especially coming on the same morning that I heard Sir Martin Sorrell speaking once again of the challenges and opportunities to generate higher ROI in more targeted niche marketing strategies.

Where it all comes together

The very worthwhile ITVT blog has an interesting interview with the CEO of the formerly independent Kontiki (now part of Verisign) about how Kontiki (which has partnered with both the BBC and Sky) slots into the Verisign gameplan. Interesting factoid along the way is the claim that Sky by Broadband is doing multiple terabytes of video per day.

Britons with long tails

UK mega-uber-super-duper regulator OFCOM has done it again, releasing today its annual market overview of all things communication. The really sexy bit from the press release:

"The Report reveals striking evidence that a new 'networked generation' is turning away from television, radio and newspapers in favour of online services , including downloadable content - used on multiple devices such as iPods and mobile phones - and participation in online communities.

Television is of declining interest to many 16-24 year olds; on average they watch television for one hour less per day than the average television viewer. Of the television they do watch, an even smaller proportion of their time is spent viewing public service broadcasting channels, down from 74% of total viewing among this age group in 2001 to 58% today. Instead, the internet plays a central role in daily life; more than 70% of 16-24 year old internet users use social networking websites (compared to 41% of all UK internet users) and 37% of 18-24 year olds have contributed to a blog or website message board (compared to 14% of all UK internet users).

The same group also uses mobile phones extensively, on average making seven more calls and sending 42 more texts per week than the wider UK population.

Extensive use of the internet has also influenced 15-24 year olds' consumption of other media. Their radio listening is lower, by an average of 15 minutes a day compared to the wider population; additionally, 27% of those surveyed said they read newspapers less as a consequence of their online usage."

Auction 2.0

I've returned from my brief camping trip (see Flickr badge at right for highlights) to find two interesting posts on the AWS auction, which commences today. Both are well worth reading and absorbing. Harold Feldman gives a lot interesting historical color on the process, and predicts an outcome north of $15bn. Keith McMahon is looking for $30bn. In my humble opinion, both are right on target when they cite the crucial role this auction could play for DirecTV and Echostar in changing the competitive landscape (i.e., breaking the cable/RBOC duopoly), and I am intrigued to see John Malone backing this "third pipe" consortium. The flipside of this situation, which both authors point out, is that Time Warner Cable and Comcast will have huge motivation to bid aggressively, both to thwart the DBS players and establish a degree of independence from Sprint-Nextel. The other three incumbent wireless players (Verizon, Cingular, T-Mobile) will all want to hurt one another as well as limit future competitive pressure from upstarts. And I assume that Verizon and Cingular want to see T-Mobile burn up cash, as it needs the spectrum far more than they do. All in all, it promises to be an extremely ugly experience - just what Chaotica loves to see!

Web 2.0 datapoints

This blog has been seriously neglected while I have been dealing with a very intense Q2 reporting season. Must try harder in future.

The ever-industrious folks at japan.internet.com have come up with a couple of more interesting research pieces, which will no doubt be of interest to non-Japanese speakers.

First podcasting. Out of the 1,046 people interviewed, 47% claimed to have some familiarity with podcasts (this is up from last year), and nearly 10% had either listened to or produced one. Of this group of 103 podcast users, 68% responded that they listened to content from radio stations or other mainstream media, but 32% responded that they listened to independent content created by individuals. Just under 8% said that they had some experience of producing a podcast. The japan.internet.com article almost turns apologetic in tone at this point, citing this c.8% figure as low, but what proportion of the public has ever had experience producing a TV or radio broadcast? I think 8% is actually pretty high. Interestingly, though I guess, I at least, tend to think of podcasts as being portable media, the Japan survey shows that 70% of listening occurs at home. The author also cites apparently sluggish podcast adoption figures in the US, and asks whether podcasting in Japan is "hot or not." The survey shows that 29.3% of respondents said they felt podcasting was becoming more popular, but 28.9% said they felt it wasn't.

Secondly, they attempted to discern how deeply Web 2.0 usage habits have penetrated mainstream internet use in Japan. While a previous survey conducted in May showed that 10% of web users are familiar with social bookmarking, and nearly 4% of respondents claimed to have used it, this survey found that 94% of users still rely on the "Favorites" tab on the browser, and only 0.3% of respondents claimed to use social bookmarking as their primary bookmarking tool. The researchers also attempted to ascertain just how broad web usage is. Asked how many sites they check on a regular basis, two-thirds said between two and five, with only 12% replying "11 or more." Most shocking to proponents and fans of RSS (myself among them), while previous research showed that as much as 17% of web users had some experience with an RSS newsreader, in this survey only 0.6% of respondents claimed to use one as their primary method of monitoring favorite sites, vs. 94% who use the bookmarks saved in the browser.

Back to the UK to wrap up, my friend Neil Fairbrother over at thamesvalleypod.tv pinged me yesterday with some pretty amazing stats. Check out his account here.

Prodigem reborn

Mega-uber value readers may recall that I have written about Prodigem with some enthusiasm on many occasions over at EuroTelcoblog, and have also used it to distribute some of my content. Following its acquisition back in the spring, Prodigem has revamped its look and relaunched as MoveDigital, and has moved beyond its original remit of Torrent creation and hosting, to encompass direct download hosting. There's also a sharing widget which includes the ability to donate bandwidth, presumably to those considered particularly promising authors. Check it out - apparently Senator John Edwards was the first official customer.

Cracked up

Last Friday afternoon I was only about 100 yards or so from my office, beginning my bike ride home, when I had a three-way misunderstanding with an unobservant pedestrian and an innocent bus. I was the only injury, but as I never like to do things halfway, I seem to have bruised most of the ribs on my right side. All outpourings of pity are welcome, as are cash donations and unwanted painkillers. Understandably, I think, blogging is a low priority for me right now. Though it's unlikely that they will be reading this, I would nevertheless like to extend my gratitude to the three very kind, decent people who came forward from the throng of gawking morons in front of Cannon Street Station to help me get upright again and see if I was okay.

Blowing a tube

Poor internet, it's in real trouble as each passing day brings some new claim or counter-claim to value creation or destruction, requiring someone to plead victimization and demand compensation (we've seen the likes of this before). What makes things even scarier, in fact bordering on the surreal, is the risible justifications for some of these claims from the political sphere. Take this vivisection of Senator Ted "Tubes" Stevens by Jon Stewart (it takes a while to load, but it is well worth the wait). You really couldn't make this up if you had to - my favorite section is where Sen. Stevens claims that his staff sent him "an internet" and he didn't receive it until days later, presumably because of congestion. I get the distinct impression that the internet is an entirely alien concept to the man, though he appears to have a much better understanding of the traditional content industry...